While the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh is still over nine months away, it’s never too early to dive into early predictions for the coveted No. 1 overall pick. If last year taught us anything, it’s that the NFL draft is full of surprises, and storylines can shift dramatically between summer hype and draft day reality. Remember Cam Ward? This time last year, he was a lesser-known quarterback prospect with only a 1% chance of being the first pick. Fast forward to April 2025, and Ward was not only the consensus top quarterback but the first name off the board, selected by the Tennessee Titans.

So, what can we expect this time around? Will another under-the-radar quarterback skyrocket to the top spot like Ward did? Could one of the preseason favorites lock down their status as QB1 and cement their place as the first pick? Or perhaps we’ll see something truly rare—a non-quarterback claiming the No. 1 spot, a feat that hasn’t happened since 2022.

This year’s draft class is loaded with intriguing prospects, particularly at the quarterback position. But don’t sleep on the top-tier defenders, elite receivers, or dominant offensive linemen who could shake things up. To help make sense of the early chaos, we’ve identified 14 players with a realistic shot at being the No. 1 pick in 2026—and yes, we’re attaching percentage odds to each. The list includes established stars, emerging talent, and a few dark horses who might just pull a Cam Ward-esque rise.

Let’s kick things off with one of our favorite quarterbacks in the class—but keep your eyes on the entire list. Even those players sitting at just 1% odds right now can’t be ignored. After all, a year ago, that’s exactly where Cam Ward stood.

The Quarterback Watch

It’s almost become tradition for a quarterback to headline the draft class, and 2026 is shaping up to be no different. Several signal-callers already have scouts buzzing, and they’re poised to headline the top of most draft boards—barring injury or a dramatic drop in form.

One name generating serious early momentum is Arch Manning of Texas. With the Manning legacy backing him—uncles Peyton and Eli both went No. 1 overall—expectations are sky-high. If Arch puts together a dominant season and leads Texas into playoff contention, it’ll be hard to keep his name out of the No. 1 conversation.

But Manning isn’t alone. Other quarterbacks are in strong contention, including:

• Malachi Nelson (USC) – A highly touted former five-star recruit with a cannon arm and elite upside.
• Dante Moore (Oregon) – Athletic and accurate, with the potential to command a pro-style offense from day one.
• Connor Weigman (Texas A&M) – Smart, tough, and battle-tested in the SEC, which always boosts draft stock.

Each of these passers brings something unique to the table, and the team holding the No. 1 pick—often desperate for a franchise quarterback—will have a tough decision to make. If history is any indicator, one of these names could separate from the pack by next April.

Can a Non-QB Go First Overall?

It’s not impossible, but it’s certainly rare. Still, this class includes some generational talents at other positions who could force their way into the top spot. For that to happen, a few things must align: an elite season, a clean injury record, and—most importantly—a team already set at quarterback holding the first pick.

Players to watch in this category include:

• Luther Burden III (WR, Missouri) – A dynamic playmaker with elite speed and route-running skills. If he dominates the SEC again, he could enter the “No. 1 pick” chat.
• James Pearce Jr. (EDGE, Tennessee) – Explosive off the edge with top-tier bend and pass-rush instincts. NFL teams are always hunting for a dominant edge rusher, and Pearce could be the guy.
• Will Campbell (OT, LSU) – If a team values protecting the quarterback above all else, Campbell’s name could rise. He’s been anchoring LSU’s line since his freshman year and might be the safest bet in the class.

The Long Shots Worth Watching

Let’s not forget how quickly things can change. Cam Ward’s meteoric rise last year is the blueprint for every dark horse in this class. That’s why even the players sitting with just a 1% chance today deserve a mention. A breakout season, a strong Combine, or even an impressive Senior Bowl week could vault them into the top pick discussion.

Names in this tier include:

• Riley Leonard (QB, Notre Dame) – Transferring into a marquee program could be the platform he needs.
• Harold Perkins Jr. (LB, LSU) – Hybrid defenders like him are becoming increasingly valuable in today’s NFL.
• Emeka Egbuka (WR, Ohio State) – Overshadowed a bit by Marvin Harrison Jr., but an elite talent in his own right.

Final Thoughts

While we’re still months away from the 2026 NFL Draft, the excitement is already building. The race for the No. 1 overall pick is wide open, and history tells us to expect the unexpected. Whether it’s a familiar name like Arch Manning living up to the hype, or a lesser-known star emerging from the shadows, the road to the top of the draft is never straightforward.

We’ll continue to track these prospects throughout the college football season, Combine, and pro days—but for now, the early race is on. And if you’re betting on who goes No. 1 in Pittsburgh, don’t sleep on the 1-percenters. As we learned last year, those long shots can become headliners in a heartbeat.