The Southeastern Conference is never short on marquee matchups, and Week 5 gives us another must-watch showdown when the Ole Miss Rebels host the LSU Tigers on Saturday, September 27th. Two high-powered programs, plenty of storylines, and major implications for the SEC West are on the line. This is the kind of game that shapes not only the conference standings but also the broader college football landscape. Below, we’ll dive into the odds, analysis, and best betting angles for this clash in Oxford.
How to Watch LSU vs. Ole Miss
- Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Mississippi
- When: Saturday, September 27th at 3:30 pm ET
- Channel: ABC
LSU vs. Ole Miss Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook, Sept. 24)
- Moneyline: Ole Miss -120 | LSU +100
- Spread: Ole Miss -1.5 (-110) | LSU +1.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 54.5 (-112) | Under 54.5 (-108)
Game Analysis
Rivalries in the SEC often come with an extra layer of intrigue, and this one didn’t disappoint off the field. Social media lit up earlier this week when LSU linebacker Whit Weeks made his relationship with Landry Kiffin, daughter of Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin, “Instagram official.” While it’s mostly lighthearted chatter, you can bet it won’t be ignored in Oxford. Of course, come kickoff, the focus shifts to what really matters: football.
On the field, LSU appears to be the better-rounded team. In my Week 4 notes, I highlighted how well Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss performed against Arkansas and Tulane. His mobility and ability to extend plays give the Rebels an added dimension compared to Austin Simmons. That said, Chambliss faces a tall order against an LSU defense that ranks eighth nationally in Adjusted EPA per play allowed (-0.26).
Defensive coordinator Blake Baker has turned this Tigers unit into a disciplined, disruptive group. After a rocky start to his tenure, he finally has the pieces to thrive. LSU’s front seven, led by Damien Shanklin, Jacobian Guillory II, and Harold Perkins, is built to pressure quarterbacks and collapse pockets. Against a quarterback like Chambliss, that could be the difference. Throw in a secondary filled with aggressive ball-hawks, and turnovers are a real possibility.
On the other side, the matchup tilts in LSU’s favor as well. While the Tigers’ offensive line has shown cracks early in the year, Ole Miss simply doesn’t generate enough pressure to exploit it. The Rebels’ 7.1% Havoc rate is one of the lowest in the nation. That bodes well for LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who thrives when given time. With a talented receiving corps at his disposal, Nussmeier could pick apart the Ole Miss secondary if he’s allowed to settle in the pocket.
If you need proof, look no further than Ole Miss’ recent meeting with Arkansas. The Rebels gave up 35 points in a game that was much closer than expected. LSU is better than Arkansas on both sides of the ball, which makes you wonder how Ole Miss can consistently get stops in this matchup.
History also offers some perspective. Since Brian Kelly took over at LSU, the Tigers are 11-5 straight-up against offenses averaging 31+ points per game. In other words, when facing explosive teams, they’ve held their own more often than not.
Prediction
The home team has historically dominated this series, winning six of the last seven meetings. That trend gives Ole Miss backers some comfort. But ultimately, LSU’s defense looks more trustworthy in a matchup where one or two stops could swing the game. With Nussmeier’s arm and Baker’s defense, the Tigers have the tools to silence the Oxford crowd and grab a statement win.
Final Pick: LSU +1.5 (and sprinkle the moneyline at +100)
Expect the Tigers to do just enough defensively while their offense takes advantage of Ole Miss’ inability to create pressure. This feels like LSU’s game to lose.