The Toronto Blue Jays are set to clash with the Tampa Bay Rays in an exciting American League East series opener on Monday night. As the MLB regular season nears its conclusion, this matchup presents a compelling narrative. The first-place Blue Jays (87-62) are riding high on a four-game winning streak, aiming to extend their division lead, while the fourth-place Rays (73-76) enter the game looking to rebound after a recent setback on the road.
The game will be played at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:35 PM ET. The pitching matchup carries an air of uncertainty, as the Rays have yet to announce their starter, while the Blue Jays will unveil 22-year-old right-hander Trey Yesavage, making his Major League Baseball debut.
Given the lack of a confirmed pitcher for Tampa and the rookie status of Yesavage, this game promises unpredictability. To provide a thorough analysis, we’ll look at team splits, the season series, and recent form to guide our best bets on the money line, total runs, and player props.
### Betting Predictions and Best Picks
**Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+100)**
Although the Blue Jays are enjoying a strong run, all hot streaks eventually end, especially on the road. Toronto has won five of its last six games, all played at home, but now faces a tough Tampa team that has dominated this season’s series. The Rays hold a 5–1 advantage in head-to-head matchups, including sweeping a 3–0 record at home.
Toronto’s offense has struggled significantly in Tampa, scoring just two runs across three games earlier in the year. The Blue Jays’ road performance (37-37) is noticeably weaker than their home record (50-25), and their offensive production dips on the road — OPS falls from .792 at home to .752 away. To complicate matters, the Blue Jays will be missing star shortstop Bo Bichette, who is out until at least September 17.
Meanwhile, the Rays enter this game healthy with no key injuries in their position players and boast a respectable .754 OPS at home. Toronto’s rookie Trey Yesavage, standing 6’4” and 225 pounds, features promising pitches including a fastball, splitter, and slider. However, his control has been an issue in Triple-A, walking 41 batters over 98 innings, which could lead to costly mistakes.
Looking at these factors, Tampa’s recent dominance and stronger home form make them the more enticing betting choice on the money line, especially at +100 odds.
**Over 8.5 Total Runs (-120)**
The dynamic of a rookie pitcher facing a bullpen-focused Rays team tends to create a high-variance scenario, often translating into a higher scoring affair. Toronto’s lineup has been more effective on the road lately, even though they scored only twice in their last Tampa visit back in May.
Yesavage earned his call-up after posting a solid 5–1 record with a 3.12 ERA in 22 Triple-A starts, along with an impressive 160 strikeouts in 98 innings. But his command issues and walk rates suggest the potential for free bases and run-scoring opportunities. Comparatively, other rookies debuting this year, such as Chase Burns, have experienced games featuring plenty of strikeouts but also allowed runs.
Both teams rank among the top seven in OPS for September. The Rays, in particular, have shown they can score effectively against right-handed pitchers with a .260 batting average and a .741 OPS, better than their numbers against lefties. With both teams likely to lean on bullpen arms early, betting the Over 8.5 total runs feels like the safer wager.
**Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)**
This player prop comes packed with value. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is one of baseball’s premier hitters, flaunting a .304 batting average, .391 on-base percentage, and a .500 slugging percentage on the season. He’s hit 23 home runs and driven in 80 runs, showcasing his offensive dominance.
Against the Rays this year, Guerrero Jr. has been equally impressive, going 6-for-18 with two homers, a 1.222 OPS, and accumulating 13 total bases. On the road, his performance has been even better, with a .336 average, .949 OPS, and 138 total bases in 69 games.
Given his consistency and ability to perform against Tampa’s pitching, backing Guerrero to record over 1.5 total bases (+110) is a sharp betting choice.
Game Odds and Player Props
Here’s a quick look at the official odds and some notable player props for the game:
| Bet Type | Odds |
|———————-|———-|
| Toronto Blue Jays ML | -120 |
| Tampa Bay Rays ML | +100 |
| Run Line (Blue Jays -1.5) | Varies |
| Total Runs (O/U 8.5) | -120 on Over |
Player Home Run Odds:
– Junior Caminero (TB Rays): +240
– Daulton Varsho (TOR Blue Jays): +375
– George Springer (TOR Blue Jays): +375
– Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR Blue Jays): +425
– Brandon Lowe (TB Rays): +450
– Addison Barger (TOR Blue Jays): +450 Final Thoughts
This showdown between the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays sets up as a fascinating test for Toronto’s rookie pitcher and Tampa’s resilient offense. With the Rays dominating the recent series and better home form, they present good value at +100 on the money line. The high likelihood of runs, driven by rookie command concerns and potent offenses, makes the Over 8.5 total runs wager a smart play. Meanwhile, trusting Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to shine on the road against a tough Tampa pitching staff rounds out the key bets for this game.
Expect plenty of excitement as the AL East race continues to heat up on Monday night in Tampa.