The Toronto Blue Jays have spent much of this season reminding the American League that they are a team to be reckoned with and their recent performance shows they’re not slowing down anytime soon. After a pivotal series against the Houston Astros, the Blue Jays are in a prime position to secure the AL East title and a coveted first-round bye as the regular season winds down.
Winning two out of three in Houston this week was more than just another series win; it was a statement. Toronto, which hasn’t tasted postseason victory since 2016, has struggled in past wild-card matchups, losing all three appearances in the best-of-three format. This year, they want nothing to do with that scenario. Their roster is built for longer series, and the talent they have both on the mound and at the plate is perfectly suited to a five-game matchup in the ALDS.
The Blue Jays’ pitching staff stands out as one of the deepest in the league. Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Max Scherzer, if healthy, form a formidable trio for the opening games of a potential postseason series. After that, Toronto has options in Chris Bassitt and José Berríos, with Eric Lauer providing additional support from the bullpen. On the offensive side, the Blue Jays’ position players give them the depth and versatility needed to sustain success over multiple games—something that has eluded them in past playoff runs.
As of Friday, Toronto sits atop the American League with an 84-62 record, half a game ahead of the Detroit Tigers, who lead the Central, and 5.5 games ahead of both the Astros and Mariners in the West. If the Blue Jays maintain even a slightly above-.500 pace over their remaining 16 games, a first-round bye will be theirs. Conversely, slipping to a .500 record or worse could open the door for divisional challengers, but the odds are heavily in Toronto’s favor.
According to FanGraphs, the Blue Jays have a 78.9 percent chance of winning the AL East at this stage of the season. The numbers work in their favor: with just over two weeks remaining, the margin for error for the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox is razor-thin. Currently three and 3.5 games back, respectively, both teams would need near-perfect finishes to overtake Toronto. For example, if the Blue Jays finish 9-7 over the final 16 games, they would finish with 93 wins. The Yankees would then need to go 13-3, while the Red Sox who have one fewer game remaining would have to post a flawless 13-2 finish.
Adding to Toronto’s advantage, the Yankees and Red Sox are set to face off in a three-game series starting Friday. Inevitably, one team will drop at least two games, making a perfect finish even more difficult. Essentially, the Blue Jays have forced the pressure onto their rivals; they simply need to stay steady and continue winning to maintain control of their destiny.
The remainder of Toronto’s schedule is far from easy. The team will face the Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays (twice), Kansas City Royals, and Boston Red Sox in the final stretch. There are no easy outs, and the Blue Jays can’t afford to let up. However, they are in exactly the position they need to be: in control of their own fate, with the path to a first-round bye clearly defined.
For Blue Jays fans, the message is clear: the team has done the hard work, taken care of business in crucial series, and now just needs to keep its foot on the pedal. If they can maintain their focus and consistency over the final weeks, October will be looking very promising for Toronto finally offering a shot at postseason success that has eluded them for nearly a decade.