The second round of the US Open Women’s Singles 2025 promises fireworks as Spain’s Cristina Bucsa faces off against the Philippines’ rising star Alexandra Eala on Wednesday. Both players are hungry for a spot in the Round of 32, but the numbers suggest Eala may have the slight edge.
Simulation Results Favor Eala
According to the latest projections from Dimers’ trusted tennis model, Eala is tipped as the most likely winner of this match. After simulating the clash 10,000 times, the data leans in favor of the 20-year-old Filipina, who recently made history by becoming the first player from her country to win a Grand Slam singles match in the Open era.
Dimers data analyst Greg Butyn explained:
“With the latest updates and numerous other variables, we estimate Alexandra Eala’s chance of winning at 56%, with Cristina Bucsa at 44%.”
That slim margin underscores just how competitive this matchup is expected to be.
Why Eala Has the Edge
Eala enters this match on a high. Her first-round victory over No. 14 seed Clara Tauson was a showcase of grit and maturity, rallying from 1-5 down in the final set to secure a thrilling tiebreak win. That kind of resilience often translates well in Grand Slam settings, where nerves and stamina play just as much of a role as raw skill.
Bucsa, ranked World No. 95, is no pushover. She breezed past American qualifier Claire Liu 6-2, 6-1 in the opening round, showing sharpness and confidence. Her consistency from the baseline and ability to construct points will certainly test Eala’s defense and shot-making.
Still, momentum may be on Eala’s side. Riding the wave of national pride and international attention, she’ll look to back up her breakthrough win with another strong performance.
Best Bets and Picks
With odds this tight, bettors may find value in live betting or set-based markets rather than simply picking an outright winner. Eala’s comeback ability makes her dangerous even if she drops the opening set, while Bucsa’s steady baseline game could push this match to three sets.
Prediction: Alexandra Eala to win in three tight sets.
Confidence Level: Moderate (56% win probability).
Final Thoughts
This second-round clash is more than just a matchup on paper it’s a battle of belief versus experience. If Eala can maintain her composure and ride the momentum of her historic victory, she has every chance to edge out Bucsa and continue her dream run in New York.