As the 2025 Tour de France continues to unfold, the competition for the coveted green jersey is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent years. With two sprint stages already in the books and two more slated for the weekend, the points classification is heating up—and a familiar legend has weighed in on who he thinks could walk away with the prize. Peter Sagan, the seven-time winner of the green jersey, believes Mathieu van der Poel is more than capable of clinching it this year.
Currently, the green jersey race is being led not by a sprinter, but by overall race leader Tadej Pogačar, who sits at the top of the standings with 156 points. Hot on his heels is Italian powerhouse Jonathan Milan, who has 122 points, followed by last year’s points classification champion Biniam Girmay on 111. Dutchman Mathieu van der Poel trails close behind with 108 points—a notable haul, especially considering his role within the Alpecin-Deceuninck team shifted after teammate Jasper Philipsen’s withdrawal from the race.
Van der Poel has wasted no time stepping into the spotlight. With a stage win and a strong second-place finish in Boulogne-sur-Mer and Rouen, he’s racked up 80 of his 108 points from those two performances alone. With 100 more points up for grabs in the weekend’s sprint stages, and an additional 20 points available from an early intermediate sprint on Sunday’s stage 9, there’s everything to play for. By Bastille Day on Monday, the points standings could look completely different.
So who better to assess van der Poel’s chances than Peter Sagan, a man who dominated the green jersey competition for nearly a decade? Speaking to WielerFlits, Sagan shared his confidence in van der Poel’s capabilities while also acknowledging the unpredictable nature of the race and the role team strategy will inevitably play.
“He’s definitely the type of rider who can do it, but it very much depends on how he feels and what the team’s plan is,” Sagan said. “I’ve done it seven times, so he can do it once.”
Sagan’s vote of confidence holds weight, especially considering how similar the two riders are in terms of versatility. Like Sagan, van der Poel is not a pure sprinter, but a Classics specialist with an explosive kick, strong climbing legs, and the ability to pick up points on challenging terrain as well as flat finishes. This all-around strength makes him a legitimate contender in a year where the traditional sprint kings are struggling to dominate.
The absence of Jasper Philipsen, who was expected to be a frontrunner in the green jersey battle, has opened the door for van der Poel to chase individual success rather than act solely as a lead-out rider. With fewer pure sprint finishes left on the route and more opportunities for breakaways and punchy finales, the Dutch star’s well-rounded skillset could prove to be his greatest asset.
As the Tour heads into a decisive weekend, the green jersey picture remains wide open. Van der Poel will need to be sharp, opportunistic, and consistent, but as Peter Sagan suggests, he has all the tools to make it happen. The road ahead may be long and unpredictable, but if there’s one rider who can navigate it to green jersey glory, it just might be Mathieu van der Poel.